DND Special Report
The slain U.S. President John F. Kennedy once said, “Victory has a hundred fathers, and defeat is an orphan.” His phrase is rooted in the Stoic era. The famous historian Tacitus once remarked, “This is an unfair thing about war: victory is claimed by all, failure to one alone.”
Publius Cornelius Tacitus (circa AD 56 – circa AD 120) was a Roman historian and politician. Tacitus is widely regarded by modern scholars as one of the greatest Roman historians.
Another citation from the Roman era comes from Epictetus, who said, “In prosperity, it is very easy to find a friend; but in adversity, it is most difficult of all things.” Communication philosophers believe that both quotations are Stoic reminders about preparedness. When things are going well, our ego convinces us that we don’t need others. We assume this will last forever that we have everything under control. Of course, this is delusional.
India is facing a similar situation after suffering a humiliating defeat at the hands of Pakistan. Yet New Delhi refuses to accept that diplomatic stratification is a reality. Global powers organize countries into hierarchical layers based on wealth, power, and status and India has lost its position as a state that once projected itself as the “net security provider of the West” in South Asia.
India’s current condition can be viewed through the lens of social stratification theories. According to functionalist theorists like Wilbert Moore, stratification exists because different positions in society require varying levels of skill, training, and responsibility. Think about it: would you want someone without medical training to perform your surgery? Or someone without legal expertise to defend you in court? The functionalist argument suggests that society naturally rewards the most important and difficult roles with higher status and power. Stratification, therefore, acts as a talent-sorting system: those with exceptional abilities and dedication rise to positions of greater responsibility and reward, while others find their appropriate level based on their skills and effort. This creates what functionalists call a “meritocracy”, a system where advancement is based on merit rather than connections.
Almost every week, U.S. President Donald Trump reminds India that it lost seven brand-new fighter jets in just four days of clashes with Pakistan. He warns India to beware of Pakistan’s Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir, describing him as “intelligent, tough, daring, and a fighter.” During and after Marka-e-Haq (the four-day Pakistan–India clashes), only two countries—Israel and Afghanistan—stood with India. The rest of the world either remained silent or sided with Pakistan.
Indian journalist and regional analyst N. C. Bipindra, in his recent article titled “India Loses Strategic Depth: Geopolitics Forces Shut Down of First Overseas ‘Ayni’ Air Base in Tajikistan”, revealed that India lost a key strategic asset at the Ayni Air Base in Tajikistan after being asked to withdraw all military assets. Tajikistan, which has long opposed the Afghan Taliban regime, was the first country to raise alarms when the Taliban retook Kabul on August 15, 2021. Tajikistan considers the Taliban a terrorist regime dangerous for the entire region—a stance now shared by Pakistan. India’s recent overtures to the Afghan Taliban cost it dearly, as Tajikistan promptly ordered India to vacate its soil.
Satellite imagery confirms that the Ayni Air Base is now empty, with no Indian fighter jets visible on the runway. Indian media have since confirmed that the base was unavailable to India during Operation Sindoor. For two decades, the Ayni Air Base served as India’s most strategically significant pressure point against Pakistan. India initially invested around USD 70 million to develop the base for fighter operations, reportedly stationing Sukhoi jets there since 2015. Though India and Tajikistan never officially acknowledged Indian Air Force operations at Ayni, strategic affairs experts long described it as India’s first overseas military asset in Central Asia. Then-President Ram Nath Kovind visited the base in October 2018, marking the first time an Indian head of state toured the facility. India also operated a hospital at Farkhor on the Tajik Afghan border.
This episode exemplifies how India is rapidly losing its regional stature. Even a smaller, economically weaker Central Asian state has expelled India from its territory. The credit goes to New Delhi’s flawed strategic choices attacking Pakistan while simultaneously courting the Afghan Taliban.
While India faces diplomatic isolation, Pakistan’s standing is rising with each passing day.
Foreign affairs experts assert that India is experiencing severe diplomatic isolation. Operation Sindoor and Operation Bunyan-al-Marsous offer numerous diplomatic lessons for both Islamabad and New Delhi. For India, the reality check is stark and disheartening: it finds itself gravely isolated. Forget the Global North even neighboring countries have refrained from supporting New Delhi.
In Bangladesh, anti-India sentiment is already high, weakening Dhaka’s willingness to align with New Delhi. Sri Lanka, long a victim of Indian-sponsored cross-border terrorism, has realigned with China and remains neutral. China’s growing influence in Colombo further constrains Sri Lanka’s maneuverability. Nepal, since 2018, has endured strained ties and border disputes with India but maintained neutrality due to its inclusion in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which India rejects. Bhutan, too, refrained from issuing any pro-Indian statements. The 2017 Doklam standoff with China weakened Bhutan–India ties and pushed Thimphu toward neutrality and greater autonomy. The Maldives has historically remained neutral in India–Pakistan conflicts and continues to do so.
India’s diplomatic isolation is also rooted in domestic social segregation policies under the BJP government, whose Hindutva-driven foreign policy exerts rigid control over national security.
Following this isolation, the costs of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign trips have come under public scrutiny. Independent Indian media have raised concerns, while the government has refused to release data on expenses incurred from May 2014 to March 2025. During this period, Modi visited at least 41 countries once, including Argentina, Austria, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Egypt, Fiji, Iran, Israel, Kenya, Mexico, the Netherlands, Oman, Pakistan, Portugal, Spain, and Vietnam.
He visited 14 countries twice—including Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh, Italy, and Qatar—and made three trips to eight others, such as Brazil, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Kingdom. He traveled four times to Sri Lanka; five times to China, Nepal, and Singapore; six times to Germany; seven times to Japan, Russia, and the UAE; eight times to France (possibly related to the Rafale deal); and ten times to the United States.
India allocates $2.8 billion annually to its Ministry of External Affairs, excluding expenditures on international tourism and cultural engagements. Federal ministries, along with 28 Indian states, collectively spend an additional $1.2 billion on global roadshows, cultural events, and tourism promotion. In total, India spends nearly $4 billion annually on diplomacy and international outreach.
By contrast, Pakistan’s diplomatic budget is modest—just $125 million annually. Pakistan maintains 122 missions in 89 countries, while India operates in 130. Modi’s 157 foreign visits over 11 years cost the Indian exchequer 8,400 crore rupees. Despite these extensive efforts, India remains diplomatically isolated during critical moments, including wartime crises.
This diplomatic downfall was predicted by India’s former National Security Adviser and Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Menon, in January 2020. Menon warned that events like Howdy Modi were damaging India’s international reputation and that the Modi government’s reckless actions for domestic gains were eroding its diplomatic credibility.
Menon, a respected icon in Indian diplomacy, served as Ambassador to Israel and High Commissioner to Sri Lanka and Pakistan. He became Foreign Secretary in 2006 and was later appointed National Security Adviser by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.
