DND Special Report
There are reasons to believe that the return of Afghan Taliban to power was ensured by a possible secret deal between United States and Afghan Taliban that took place during 2018 and the deal was realized through Doha Accord (also called Doha Agreement). Since then (August 15, 2021), Afghanistan has again become a sanctuary for transnational terrorism.
Despite the group’s assurances under Agreement that it would not allow Afghan soil to be used for terrorism, mounting evidence from international institutions, intelligence assessments, and independent research reveals otherwise.
The International Criminal Court’s (ICC) recent indictment of top Taliban leaders underscores the regime’s growing authoritarianism, repression, and complicity in global jihadist resurgence.
This paper examines Afghanistan’s descent into extremism under the Taliban, its evolving role as a terror hub, and the implications for regional and global security.
On July 8, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Taliban supreme leader Haibatullah Akhundzada and Chief Justice Abdul Hakim Haqqani for crimes against humanity committed between August 2021 and January 2025. The ICC accused the Taliban of implementing policies amounting to gender apartheid, targeting Afghan women and girls by depriving them of fundamental rights and freedoms (The Guardian & The Telegraph, 2025). This systemic repression was institutionalized through the Management of Political Programs Policy, enacted on July 3, 2025, which banned political discourse critical of the Taliban and granted the Political Program Oversight Committee (PPOC) sweeping powers over the media.
(Source: The Guardian, 2025; The Telegraph, 2025).
Afghanistan reverses to terror safe haven
After the end of Biden government that went for a possible secret deal with Afghan Taliban, increase of terrorism in Afghanistan has drawn grave concern from the United States and its allies. U.S. Congressman Bill Huizenga, chair of the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on South and Central Asia, warned in mid-2025 that Afghanistan has once again become a “safe haven for terrorist groups” following the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 (Indian Defence News, 2025). He highlighted the growing activities of ISIS-Khorasan (ISIS-K) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), both of which have expanded their operations and transnational networks. Huizenga also recalled the 2021 ISIS-K suicide bombing at Kabul Airport and noted its recent attempts to carry out attacks in Moscow, Tehran, and even Paris. Huizenga warned that security situation in Pakistan remains fragile due to militant infiltration from Afghanistan (Indian Defence News, 2025).
(Source: Indian Defence News, 2025).
Terrorism is a Diplomatic Leverage
Afghan Taliban does not care about neighboring countries (Pakistan, Central Asian States, Iran) and does not restrict terror networks to attack neighboring countries. According to Dr. Asfandyar Mir (United States Institute of Peace, 2023), the Taliban have provided safe haven and logistical support to groups like al-Qaeda, TTP, BLA and Jamaat Ansarullah while selectively restraining others such as ISIS-K. For instance, the U.S. strike that killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in central Kabul revealed the Taliban’s duplicity and the persistence of long-standing ties with al-Qaeda, despite their Doha commitments.
The Taliban’s “three-faceted” approach—enablement, restriction, and crackdown—reflects a pragmatic attempt to maintain strategic relationships with loyal terror groups while projecting an image of compliance to the international community. Groups like the TTP reportedly receive welfare payments, weapons, and access to Taliban-controlled territory, indicating administrative complicity (United States Institute of Peace, 2023).
(Source: United States Institute of Peace, 2023).
Terrorism as a Business Model
The United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI, 2023) reported that Afghanistan’s security environment is deteriorating, characterized by Taliban fragmentation, the proliferation of international terrorist organizations, and the rise of anti-Taliban resistance groups. The UNICRI report identifies three principal dynamics: (1) internal Taliban divisions, (2) the re-establishment of terrorist safe havens, and (3) the emergence of opposition movements.
Significantly, UNICRI warns that al-Qaeda enjoys unprecedented freedom under Taliban protection, using Afghan territory to plan and coordinate transnational attacks. The report also links Taliban revenue streams to illicit activities, including narcotics trade and informal taxation, which sustain both the regime and affiliated terrorist entities. These findings reinforce fears that Afghanistan’s instability poses long-term threats to regional peace and global counterterrorism efforts.
(Source: UNICRI, 2023).
Cartelization of Terror Groups
The 35th UN Monitoring Team Report and analyses by South Asia Times (2025) reveal that Afghanistan has become a hub for hybrid terrorism where ethno-nationalist and religious extremist movements converge. Groups such as the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM/TIP), and TTP are reportedly collaborating with ISIS-K under Taliban inaction. This “terrorist convergence” transcends traditional ideological boundaries, uniting militants through shared resources, propaganda, and operational goals. Afghanistan has evolved from a passive host to an active facilitator of transnational jihadist coordination. Such cross-pollination of extremist ideologies threatens not only regional borders but also the global counterterrorism architecture.
(Source: South Asia Times, 2025).
Pakistan– The Top Target
The Global Policy Institute (2025) observes, the TTP’s surge in attacks from Afghan territory underscores Islamabad’s diminishing control over Afghan its former allies (Afghan Taliban). With over 2,500 terror-related deaths in 2024 alone, Pakistan is experiencing its worst wave of terror over a decade. The Taliban’s refusal to act against TTP safe havens while maintaining that Pakistan is not a signatory to the Doha Agreement has further strained bilateral ties. The Taliban’s unwillingness to rein in cross-border terrorism has effectively turned the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier into a “corridor of blood.”
(Source: Global Policy Institute, 2025).
Is Doha Agreement a license to harbor terrorism?
According to The Diplomat (2024), the Taliban’s denial of both al-Qaeda and TTP presence within Afghanistan directly contradicts multiple independent reports and violates the spirit of the Doha Agreement. Despite temporary ceasefire attempts mediated by the Taliban, no sustainable peace mechanism has been established between Pakistan and the TTP. Furthermore, the Taliban’s continued sheltering of extremist figures and failure to dismantle terror infrastructure demonstrate an entrenched policy of deception.
The killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul in 2022 exposed the Taliban’s duplicity, as they continue to deny his presence while al-Qaeda itself remains silent about his death. This suggests an ongoing operational relationship, which sustains global jihadist morale and connectivity.
(Source: The Diplomat, 2024).
The echoes of funding the terrorist group Taliban by the US government through US taxpayer’s money was louder. Lara Logan, a South African television and radio journalist and war correspondent who became popular due to reporting about the American invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 in her message said:
“Imagine giving these terrorists $4 million dollars of your tax money every week? Sound crazy? Because it is -pure insanity”.
Tim Burchett who is a member of Congress wrote a letter to President-elect Donald Trump on January 2, 2025, indicating that he (Tim Burchett) raised the issue in the year 2023 but his bill was intercepted. He stated in the letter that the US government does shipment of cash payments in US dollars to Afghanistan’s Central Bank. These cash shipments are auctioned off and after that, they are nearly impossible to trek. This is how the Taliban is being funded and plans to fund terrorism around the world.
(Source: DND Report)
The U.S. Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR, 2025) confirms that Afghanistan remains a sanctuary for major terrorist networks despite Taliban promises. The report identifies ISIS-K as the most dangerous transnational organization currently based in Afghanistan, with al-Qaeda and TTP maintaining entrenched networks. SIGAR also highlights that the Taliban supports the TTP, which fields approximately 6,500 fighters across eastern Afghanistan. The persistence of these groups demonstrates that the Taliban enables terrorist organizations as instruments of leverage in regional politics. The report warns that the growing threat from Afghanistan jeopardizes the safety of minorities, diplomats, and international organizations operating in the region.
(Source: SIGAR, 2025).
After four years of Doha Accord, the accord stands as a failed diplomatic experiment that has not only undermined regional stability but also reinvigorated global terrorism. Despite its ambitious goals, the agreement’s implementation quickly exposed deep flaws. The Taliban, after reclaiming Kabul in August 2021, systematically violated nearly every provision of the accord. What followed was not peace, but a resurgence of militancy, regional insecurity, and renewed threats to international stability.
The first and most fundamental pillar of the Doha Accord stipulated that Afghan soil would not be used by any group or individual to threaten the security of the United States or its allies. The Taliban pledged to sever ties with terrorist organisations, particularly al-Qaeda.
The second major commitment of the accord involved intra-Afghan negotiations aimed at fostering a political settlement and permanent ceasefire. The Taliban initially agreed to engage with various Afghan factions to establish an inclusive governance structure. Nevertheless, the Taliban delayed and ultimately derailed these talks. The discussions collapsed without producing any meaningful outcomes, leading to escalating violence and political disintegration. Instead of inclusivity, the Taliban’s military takeover in 2021 reintroduced a regime characterized by repression, gender apartheid, and exclusion of all non-Taliban actors from governance.
The third pillar of the Doha Accord focused on the release and reintegration of Taliban prisoners as a confidence-building measure. Thousands of detainees were freed under this provision including hard core TTP commanders. Empirical evidence shows that the mass release of terrorists created existentialist threat to neighboring countries are minorities within Afghanistan as Afghanistan under Taliban control has become a safe haven for an array of extremist organisations. Al-Qaeda, the Islamic State (ISIS-K), the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), posing security risks to neighbouring states including Pakistan, China, Iran, and Uzbekistan. Reports indicate that training camps, weapons trafficking, and narcotics smuggling have proliferated, turning Afghanistan into both a terrorism hub and a criminal economy.
The fourth commitment called upon the Taliban to normalise relations with the international community and demonstrate responsible governance. Yet, the regime remains diplomatically isolated, unrecognised by most of the world, and continues to suppress fundamental human rights.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the Doha Accord stands as a cautionary tale of misplaced optimism and diplomatic miscalculation. Rather than fostering peace and stability, it has enabled the resurgence of extremist networks and empowered a regime that thrives on ideological rigidity and global jihadist alliances. The Taliban’s consistent breach of commitments—ranging from human rights violations to the harboring of terrorist groups—has nullified the accord’s core objectives and exposed the fragility of agreements lacking enforcement mechanisms. The consequences extend far beyond Afghanistan’s borders, threatening international security and undermining faith in conflict resolution through negotiation with non-state actors. To prevent history from repeating itself, the global community must pivot toward a strategy grounded in accountability, inclusivity, and sustained counterterrorism cooperation. Only then can the world hope to contain the ripple effects of the Doha Accord’s failure and restore a semblance of stability to Afghanistan and its surrounding regions.
References
United Nations Security Council Reports on Afghanistan (2022–2024).
U.S. Department of Defense, “Report on the Status of the Taliban’s Commitments under the Doha Agreement,” 2023.
International Crisis Group, Afghanistan: The Taliban’s Hollow Promises, 2024.
Human Rights Watch, A Year of Taliban Rule: Repression and Regression, 2022.
The Guardian. (2025, July 8). ICC issues arrest warrants for Taliban leaders over crimes against humanity.
The Telegraph. (2025, July 8). ICC charges Taliban leadership with gender apartheid.
Indian Defence News. (2025, June). Afghanistan has become a safe haven for terrorist groups: U.S. Congressman Huizenga.
Elon Musk raised a question regarding the US funding the Taliban for spreading global terrorism.
United States Institute of Peace (USIP). (2023, August 15). Two years under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a terrorist safe haven once again?
United Nations Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute (UNICRI). (2023, May). Afghanistan’s Security Landscape Post-Taliban Takeover.
South Asia Times. (2025). Hybrid terrorism in Afghanistan: The convergence of jihadist and nationalist militancy.
The Diplomat. (2024). Afghanistan’s denial of al-Qaeda and TTP presence defies evidence.
Global Policy Institute. (2025, June 10). Afghanistan’s descent into extremism: The alarming rise of militant networks in Taliban-controlled territory.
Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). (2025, August). Quarterly Report on Afghanistan: Terror Threat Assessment.
