By Agha Iqrar Haroon
With growing transactional ties with the US, a defence pact with Saudi Arabia, and solid support from China, Pakistan is slowly emerging from the geopolitical tight spot in which it had found itself.
Sharat Sabharwal, a former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan and author of India’s Pakistan Conundrum: Managing a Complex Relationship, is a respected voice among academicians and diplomats. His article published in the Indian Express, titled “Keep a Close Eye on Pakistan — Better Ties with Key Partners Could Embolden It”, is particularly revealing as it highlights India’s deep interest in Pakistan’s setbacks and New Delhi’s concerns over Pakistan regaining ground despite India’s heavy investments in discrediting Pakistan globally, portraying it as a failed and isolated state, and launching cross-border terrorism through Afghan soil.
Sabharwal seems unsettled by widely circulated images of US President Donald Trump’s recent meeting with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, remarking that this is “not a good omen for India” and invoking a Punjabi expression: “Rabb khair kare” (May God keep everything well).
“Pakistan will soon have to clarify what kind of relationship it can realistically pursue with Afghanistan without compromising its sovereignty. Once Pakistan moves beyond this stage, India may finally have to confront the very militancy it cultivated in Afghanistan over the last 20 years—through groups like the TTP and pro-India cadres within the Taliban”
He argues that whenever the US and Pakistan found strategic convergence, it reshaped the regional map, citing the Afghan jihad and the fall of the Soviet Union. His fear appears to be that this time it may be India facing a redrawn map despite India itself having employed the third generation of Mujahideen (now the Afghan Taliban) against Pakistan, who in turn brought about the collapse of the USSR.
Sabharwal recalls that the Cold War partnership between Washington and Islamabad resulted in large US financial and military flows to Pakistan, with the association continuing albeit intermittently during the US War on Terror. He describes the relationship as a “classic case of fatal attraction,” suggesting that Washington is once again partnering with the Pakistan Army.
As a veteran diplomat, Sabharwal understands Pakistan’s geopolitical reality: its positioning has always favored it, and it has mastered the art of navigating between adversaries such as China and the US, while also brokering between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Iran and the US, Qatar and the UAE, and others. Pakistani diplomats are trained to counter Indian designs and have repeatedly pushed India onto the defensive on the global stage. The real challenge Pakistan has historically faced is the state’s will how much and how far to counter India. Another challenge has been deciding how to deal with Afghanistan. Pakistan’s one-sided “love affair” with Afghanistan has cost it dearly, while providing India with an opportunity to destabilize Pakistan through cross-border terrorism. This indecisive phase, however, now seems to be ending, and Pakistan will soon have to clarify what kind of relationship it can realistically pursue with Afghanistan without compromising its sovereignty. Once Pakistan moves beyond this stage, India may finally have to confront the very militancy it cultivated in Afghanistan over the last 20 years through groups like the TTP and pro-India cadres within the Taliban.
Sabharwal is also uneasy over Trump hosting Field Marshal Munir at a White House luncheon, noting that the true consequences of such high-level meetings often emerge later. He recognizes that when such meetings take place without press conferences or media statements, they usually involve strategic and security issues of long-term significance.
“Pakistan’s presence in the core group of Muslim world leaders engaged in the Gaza Peace Initiative—and the recent hour-and-a-half-long Oval Office meeting between Trump, Sharif, and Munir—are further “concerns” for India”
He is further alarmed by US interest in Pakistan’s critical minerals and oil reserves, particularly since these resources are concentrated in Balochistan, where India has long invested in terrorism. With US companies now seeking a foothold there, Washington would hardly allow India to continue destabilizing the very region where American financial interests are at stake. The Pakistani Prime Minister’s Office has already disclosed that Pakistan invited US investment in agriculture, information technology, mining, and energy, while also discussing counterterrorism cooperation. Sabharwal specifically worries about Trump’s apparent interest in tapping Pakistan’s massive oil reserves.
Pakistan’s presence in the core group of Muslim world leaders engaged in the Gaza Peace Initiative—and the recent hour-and-a-half-long Oval Office meeting between Trump, Sharif, and Munir—are further “concerns” for Sabharwal.
Additionally, Pakistan’s Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Saudi Arabia has disrupted Indian calculations. Under this pact, any aggression against Pakistan would be treated as aggression against Saudi Arabia. This agreement unsettles not only India but also Afghanistan, given that the Taliban previously used Riyadh as a channel to resolve disputes with Islamabad. Both Riyadh and Islamabad recognized the Taliban’s first government; now they once again stand aligned, while India and Afghanistan stand on the opposite side—an extraordinary twist in recent regional history.
Sabharwal also acknowledges that these developments indicate Pakistan will play a pivotal role in West Asia’s security architecture, as the US envisions Pakistan’s participation in an International Stabilisation Force outlined in Trump’s 21-point Gaza plan presented in New York on September 24.
“Pakistan is emerging from the position into which India, with Afghan complicity, had forced it. Sabharwal’s article reflects the mindset of Indian decision-makers: they are worried”
He writes:
“The upswing in the US-Pakistan relationship comes at a time when there are serious irritants in the US-India relationship. The Pakistan-US partnership has impacted us adversely in the past. Resumption of financial aid and military supplies by the US to Pakistan would be a matter of concern to India, as would enhanced financial flows from the Saudis or investment by them in Pakistan’s military-industrial complex. West Asia is India’s extended neighbourhood and of vital interest to it. Any role for Pakistan in its security architecture would equally be of concern. Further, Pakistan is slowly emerging from the geopolitical tight spot in which it had found itself for over two decades because of its serious internal problems and terrorists with links to it surfacing all over the world. It enjoys solid support from China, as evident during Operation Sindoor. The recent defence agreement with Saudi Arabia and the improving relationship with the US add to this trend. Experience tells us that when Pakistan has a stable equation with its key international partners, it feels emboldened to be more adventurous towards India. We will have to keep a close eye on further developments to safeguard our interests.”
I believe Sabharwal’s concerns are valid in reflecting India’s unease. Pakistan is emerging from the position into which India, with Afghan complicity, had forced it. Sabharwal’s article reflects the mindset of Indian decision-makers: they are worried. The choice now lies with Pakistan—whether to decisively dismantle the terror networks India wove around it through Afghanistan, or to continue giving Kabul the benefit of the doubt, hoping it will eventually “behave.”
India is now feeling the heat of the military diplomacy that Pakistan has long pursued, and Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir knows how to deal with adversaries. His leadership has virtually disrupted India’s strategic designs. Since the day Field Marshal Asim Munir took charge, New Delhi has struggled to sleep peacefully—and those sleepless nights are likely to continue well into the future.
