By Muhammad Moteeb
Pakistan has seen an uprise in terrorist activities during the past months. The attacks have gone beyond expectations through the deaths of senior security officers and law enforcement personnel as compared to previous years. They have spread fear among officers, which will further deteriorate order facilitation, internal stability, progress, and create civil unrest.
The state has acted decisively to curb such threats, but durable peace has not been achieved. The situation demands some bold and long-term decisions from Pakistan to change dynamics dramatically.
Pakistan has accused Afghan soil of being used for recent terrorist activities. The non-serious behavior of the Afghan Taliban has resulted in military strikes from Pakistan. The previous and current retaliations from Afghanistan at the state level project their extremist views regarding sovereignty but fail to implement such policies against cells operating inside their country that pose an active threat to regional states and even the Afghan people. The Taliban seem to be pressurizing Pakistan through active retaliation and backing terrorists but with no primary aims. This agenda can only foster results in favour of India by engaging Pakistan on multiple fronts. This policy marks a victory for Pakistan, as India fails to counter Pakistan in actual battle and is now using backdoor ways to destabilize Pakistan. India wants to take advantage of Pakistan’s internal instability and west border engagement to deteriorate the investment-friendly environment and create a security dilemma for Pakistan. This has forced Pakistan to increase security measures on both fronts and has urged Pakistan to be responsive militarily and diplomatically on multiple fronts.
The track history of Afghanistan’s behaviour does not allow Pakistan to show restraint but demands it act decisively in response to any threat. Afghanistan has a track record of acting against Pakistan, from UN membership to issues of TTP. Despite their interdependence, along with the cementation of shared beliefs, economic interests, and ethnic values, the relationship between both states has seen mutual mistrust, with critical disputes on the table. The issues with the Afghan government have roots in the British and USSR demarcation of borders and the implementation of the Durand Line. Afghanistan has no logic in developing hostility with Pakistan on issues that have historical dilemmas. Afghanistan’s years-long demands for revoking the Durand Line and the formation of Pashtunistan will not be entertained, even if it takes steps beyond critical limits.
The current Afghan regime is in no position and has no capacity to fight an all-out war with Pakistan, even if backed by India. If such a war breaks out between both nations, Afghanistan will lose its so-called sovereign land that has survived previous superpower invasions. The Wakhan Corridor, a strategic location in Central Asia, will be captured by Pakistani troops without much resistance. Afghan civilian casualties will surge and cause panic in Afghan Taliban ranks.
Afghanistan has not learned lessons from the previous use of its soil in the 9/11 attacks that resulted in the global War on Terror. This time, Afghanistan will be forced to make territorial concessions if it goes to war with Pakistan by acting as an Indian proxy. If the Afghan regime does not act against terrorist cells and continues to pressurize Pakistan under the Indian security umbrella, the result could be the capture of the Wakhan Corridor. It would be a historical and great setback and an ultimate pressure on the Afghan regime, just like the Russian occupation of Crimea in 2014 to pressure Ukraine in order to avoid NATO membership. There is currently no global condemnation of terrorist activities against Pakistan.
Pakistan should expose the Afghan regime globally by highlighting their extremist and radical views regarding women and child marriage. The current Afghan regime lacks a political mandate and is only surviving by acting as a regional proxy. The installation of an Afghan government with an inclusive mandate of stability, denial of Afghan soil to hostile groups, women’s rights, and a pledge for freedom should be Pakistan’s primary rhetoric and demand from the Afghan people. Pakistan should provoke Afghan people to act against the current regime that has no mandate and curbs political freedom. Pakistan should not rule out a hard hand against Afghanistan other than diplomacy. The suppressed voice of Afghan women can be used by Pakistan to expose the Afghan regime globally.
Afghanistan does not seem to be behaving like a true and peaceful neighbour. The current situation indicates that it will not learn diplomatic language. Afghanistan must adhere to the Doha Agreement and act upon its commitments. The denial of Afghan soil to foreign-led proxies should be the primary target of the Taliban. They have to develop and implement inclusive anti-terrorist policies to maintain regional peace and to avoid Afghanistan becoming a hub of hostile groups. The Loya Jirga should be taken into consideration and include all factions to avoid another civil war.
The ideological and ethnic orientation of Afghanistan demands it be a clean state with neighbouring Pakistan to redefine its economic boom. Also, Pakistan has to redefine its policy to create influence in Afghanistan and to wipe out nefarious Indian propaganda. Private-sector business partnerships can lift the dark cloud from the Afghan economy. Pakistan should restore economic activities with Afghanistan, as recent border closures have hit both sides’ markets hard. Afghanistan can be an active stakeholder in CPEC if it acts as a good neighbour, and both nations can move from geo-economics to geopolitics. Pakistan can train Afghan youth in technical sectors to promote goodwill and ethnic cohesion.
Afghanistan has to redefine its policies and adopt a constitution that provides a proper mechanism for state solutions. The lack of such actions will contribute to further deterioration of the situation by damaging human capital at large.
Note: Muhammad Moteeb is studying Liberal Arts at the University of Management and Technology (Lahore).
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/opinion/comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk.
