By Agha Iqrar Haroon
By-elections on 20 seats of the provincial Assembly of Punjab will be held tomorrow July 17, 2022. The PTI has erased all perceptual red lines and is ready to launch an anti-establishment movement after losing the majority of seats.
These seats had been vacant after 20 PTI MPAs were de-seated by the Election Commission of Pakistan under the defection clause. Four of the vacant seats are in Lahore. Results of by-elections are going to decide who will be the future Chief Minister of the province as the sitting CM will take a vote of confidence on July 22 under the court’s direction. CM Hamza Shahbaz Sharif will survive in office if PMLN gets more than nine seats.
Former Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that the establishment is behind his defeat in National Assembly from where he was voted out. PTI leadership has already expressed mistrust over the Election Commissioner of Pakistan, the administrations, and even the courts and will surely not accept election results if they do not come according to their desires.
PTI leaders including the chief of staff of Imran Khan Shahbaz Gill, Shirin Mazari, and Fawad Ch are constantly blaming the judiciary and the Army for being a party for throwing PTI out of Federal and Punjab governments. Political observers believe that PTI would not accept the results if it fails to get the majority of the seats and PTI chief Imran Khan will announce a movement of disobedience against the state institutions if the results are not in his favor. Khan announced a movement of disobedience in 2014 also but no action was taken against him. PTI has been criticizing Pakistan Army by naming COAS as a collaborator against PTI.
Amazingly, no action has ever been taken against PTI though its leadership has not only crossed so-called conceptual “red lines” in Pakistani politics rather has erased such redlines. It was understood that “Redlines” includes any act of abusing the Pakistan Army and the Chief of the Army. Now every important leader of PTI is abusing Pakistan Army and its leadership and there is nobody to take any action against them.
July 17 by-elections are very important for Pakistan because PTI will surely go to launch a massive campaign against the Army and the administration because it is losing political grounds and the multiparty government has fielded 16 candidates out of 20 total seats who won 2018 elections.
A constituency-wise overview of a seat-to-seat situation is hereunder to get an idea of what is going to happen on July 17, 2022, by-polls day.
Constituency: PP-7 Rawalpindi
In the 2018 general elections, the total polled votes were 159,973 and the winner was Raja Sagheer Ahmed who contested the election as an Independent and later joined PTI. He bagged 44,363 votes while the runner-up was Raja Muhammad Ali who got 42,459. The margin of votes was just 2000 plus. Now, winner Raja Sagheer Ahmed is the PMLN candidate while PTI’s candidate is Lt. Col. Shabbir Awan. Awan began his political career with the PPP in 2008 and was elected MPA that year. He joined the PTI in 2011. The constituency falls under NA-57, where PTI’s Sadaqat Ali Abbasi is MNA.
Constituency: PP-83 Khushab
The total polled votes were 161,706 in the 2018 elections and the winner was Malik Ghulam Rasool Sangha who contested election as an Independent candidate and later joined PTI. He got 69,036 while runner-up Muhammad Asif Malik bagged just 47,764. The margin was very high. Now PMLN has fielded Ameer Haider Sangha while PTI has pitched Hasan Aslam Awan who is the younger brother of Umer Aslam Awan. The constituency falls under NA-93, where PTI’s Umer Aslam Awan is MNA.
Constituency: PP-90 Bhakkar
The total polled votes were 141,252 in the 2018 elections and winner Saeed Akbar Khan Niwani won as an Independent candidate and then joined PTI. He got 59,490 while the runner-up was Irfan Ullah Khan Niazi who bagged 45,026. PMLN has fielded Saeed Akbar Khan Niwani while PTI has given the ticket to runner-up Irfanullah Niazi of PMLN. He is a former general secretary of the PML-N Bhakkar. Niazi joined the PTI this month. The constituency falls under NA-97, where PTI’s Sana Ullah Khan Masti Khel is MNA.
Constituency: PP-97 Faisalabad
The total polled votes were 127,419 in the 2018 elections Independent candidate Muhammad Ajmal Cheema got 42,405 and runner-up Ali Afzal Sahi bagged 37,973. Ajmal Cheema later joined PTI. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Muhammad Ajmal Cheema while PTI has given the ticket to Ali Afzal Sahi. The constituency falls under NA-101, where PTI’s Muhammad Asim Nazeer is MNA.
Constituency: PP-125 Jhang
The total polled votes were 125,885 in the 2018 elections and Independent candidate Faisal Hayat Jabboana won the election and then joined PTI. He got 51,050 while runner-up Azam Cheela got 38,699 votes. Now PMLN has fielded Faisal Hayat Jabboana and PTI has given the ticket to Mian Muhammad Azam Cheela
PTI has awarded the ticket to Azam Cheela, who was also the party’s candidate in 2018 but lost to Jabboana. The constituency falls under NA-114, where PTI’s Sahabzada Muhammad Mehboob Sultan is MNA.
Constituency: PP-127 Jhang
The total polled votes were 120,401 in the 2018 elections and Independent candidate Mehar Muhammad Aslam Bharwana won the election by bagging 27,535 he later joined PTI. Mehar Muhammad Nawaz was a runner-up who got 26,765. The margin was very thin. Now PMLN has granted a ticket to Mehar Muhammad Aslam Bharwana while PTI gave a ticket to Muhammad Nawaz Bharwana. The constituency falls under NA-115, where PTI’s Ghulam Bibi Bharwana is MNA.
Constituency: PP-140 Sheikhupura
The total polled votes were 109,449 in the 2018 elections. PTI candidate Mian Khalid Mehmood won the election by bagging 32,965 votes. Runner-up Tayyab Rashid got 22,659 votes. Now PMLN’s candidate is Mian Khalid Mehmood and PTI has placed Khurram Virk. The constituency falls under NA-121, where PML-N’s Javed Latif is MNA.
Constituency: PP-158 Lahore
The total polled votes were 107,616 in the 2018 elections and PTI candidate Abdul Aleem Khan won by bagging 52,319 and the runner-up was Rana Ahsan Sharafat. Now Aleem Khan is supporting PMLN candidate Rana Assan Sharafat while PTI has placed Mian Akram Usman whose father Mian Usman had been winning elections in the past as Jamaat e Islami candidate. He is also a son-in-law of PTI’s Mian Mahmood-ur-Rashid. The constituency falls under NA-129, where PML-N’s Ayaz Sadiq is MNA.
Constituency: PP-167 Lahore
The total polled votes were 94,977 in the 2018 elections and PTI candidate Nazir Ahmad Chohan won the elections by bagging 40,680 votes and runner-up: Mian Muhammad Saleem got 38,444 votes. The margin was thin and election results were not accepted by PMLN. Now PMLN has fielded Nazir Ahmed Chohan while PTI’s candidate is Shabbir Gujjar. Gujjar is the brother of PTI’s ticket holder in 2018, Khalid Gujjar. The constituency falls under NA-133, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik is MNA. She won this seat in a by-election after the death of her husband.
Constituency: PP-168 Lahore
The total polled votes were 37,028 in the 2018 elections and PTI candidate Malik Asad Ali Khokhar won this seat by bagging 17,571 while the runner-up was Rana Khalid Mahmood who got 16,870. The margin was very thin and PMLN workers did not accept the results. Now PMLN’s candidate is Malik Asad Ali Khokhar and PTI has placed Malik Nawaz Awan. The constituency falls under NA-133 and NA-131, where PML-N’s Shaista Pervaiz Malik and PML-N’s Saad Rafique are MNAs respectively.
Constituency: PP-170 Lahore
The total polled votes were 54,748 in the 2018 elections. The winner was Muhammad Amin Zulqarnain of PTI who got 25,215 and runner-up Imran Javaid got 20,765. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Muhammad Amin Zulqarnain who is the brother of former PTI leader Awn Chaudhry. PTI has given the ticket to Zaheer Abbas Khokhar. The constituency falls under NA-134, where PML-N’s Rana Mubashir Iqbal is MNA.
Constituency: PP-202 Sahiwal
The total polled votes were 115,293 in the 2018 elections and the winner was Malik Nauman Ahmad Langrial of PTI who got 57,540 while runner-up Shahid Munir got 44,349 votes. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Malik Nauman Ahmad Langrial and PTI’s candidate is Major (retired) Ghulam Sarwar. The constituency falls under NA-149, where PTI’s Murtaza Iqbal is MNA.
Constituency: PP-217 Multan
The total polled votes were 95,916 in the 2018 elections. Independent candidate Muhammad Salman Naeem won the election by bagging 35,300 by defeating former Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi who could manage only 31,734. Naeem later joined PTI. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Muhammad Salman Naeem while PTI has given the ticket to a son of Shah Mahmood Qurashi— Zain Qureshi. The constituency falls under NA-156, where PTI’s Shah Mehmood Qureshi is MNA.
Constituency: PP-224 Lodhran
The total polled votes were 121,709 in the 2018 elections. Winner Zawar Hussain Warraich of PTI got 60,872 while runner-up Muhammad Amir Iqbal Shah got only 48,253 votes. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Zawar Hussain Warraich and the PTI candidate is Amir Iqbal Shah. The constituency falls under NA-160, where PML-N’s Abdul Rehman Khan Kanju is MNA.
Constituency: PP-228 Lodhran
The total polled votes were 106,074 in the 2018 elections. Winner Nazir Ahmad Baloch of PTI got 43,256 and runner up Syed Muhammad Rafi Ud Din Bukhari got 39,869. Now PMLN’s candidate is Nazir Ahmed Baloch and PTI has given the ticket to Captain (retd) Javed Khan. The constituency falls under NA-161, where PTI’s Mian Muhammad Shafiq is MNA.
Constituency: PP-237 Bahawalnagar
The total polled votes were 121,927 in the 2018 elections. Independent candidate Fida Hussain got 56,862 and runner-up Muhammad Tariq Usman bagged 47,763 votes. Fida later joined PTI. Now Fida Hussain is a PMLN candidate and PTI has fielded Aftab Mehmood. The constituency falls under NA-166, where PTI’s Muhammad Abdul Ghafar Wattoo is MNA.
Constituency: PP-272 Muzaffargarh
Zahra Batool of PTI got 24,019 votes in 2018 by-elections and runner-up Haroon Sultan got 17,072 votes. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Zehra Basit Bukhari. This is a very interesting constituency. There would be second by-elections in this seat. Zehra Bukhari won this seat in a by-election after his husband MNA Basit Sultan Bukhari vacated this seat. She defeated her son to bag this seat who contested the election as an Independent candidate. According to unofficial results of the by-polls held on October 14, 2018, Batool received 24,019 votes and her son got the second position with 17,072 votes.
PTI has fielded Mozzam Khan Jatoi for by-elections 2022. The constituency falls under NA-185, where PTI’s Basit Bukhari is MNA.
Constituency: PP-273 Muzaffargarh
The total polled votes were 109,274 in the 2018 elections and PTI’s Muhammad Sibtain Raza won elections by bagging 36,369 votes while the runner-up was Rasool Bakhsh Khan who got 24,572 votes. Now PMLN has placed Muhammad Sibtain Raza and PTI’s candidate is Yasir Khan Jatoi. The constituency falls under NA-183, where PPP’s Raza Rabbani Khar is MNA.
Constituency: PP-282 Layyah
The total polled votes were 109,109 in the 2018 elections and an Independent candidate Muhammad Tahir Randhawa won the election by bagging 37,774 votes and later joined PTI. Qaiser Abbas Khan Magsi was the runner-up and got 27,179 votes. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Muhammad Tahir Randhawa and PTI has given the ticket to Qaiser Abbas Magsi. The constituency falls under NA-188, where PTI’s Niaz Ahmed Jakhar is MNA.
Constituency: PP-288 Dera Ghazi Khan
The total polled votes were 79,824 in the 2018 elections and the winner was Independent candidate Mohsin Atta Khan Khosa who later joined PTI. He got 39,490 and the runner-up was Sardar Muhammad Saifuddin Khan Khosa who got 30,164 votes. Now PMLN has given the ticket to Abdul Qadir Khosa and PTI has fielded Saif Khosa. The constituency falls under NA-190, where PTI’s Amjad Farooq Khan Khosa is MNA.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk News Agency.
