Agha Iqrar Haroon
Students of ‘Political Philosophy’ know that politics is the name of possibilities and political forecasts are nothing but conspiracy theories that mostly prove true in developing countries like Pakistan where political chaos is intensifying every passing day and this confusion is selectively engineered having far-reaching consequences and it is so blunt that dramaturges have become so confident that they have removed curtain between the stage and the backstage.
I prefer to call several available theories in political circles ‘conspiracy theories’ and undercurrents of political development can only be understood through such theories because nothing conformational can be said when society engulfs chaos.
Some political analysts claim that the sole target of this chaos is not the government rather it is contributing to this mess; deliberately or due to incompetency. They say that if we talk about beneficiaries, there are many including the ruling PMLN and the other is PTI which has a sole target to strike the Pakistan Army and its leadership. The judiciary is also a beneficiary sending a strong message to the establishment that it is an irreplaceable module of the power structure and neither the parliament nor the establishment can operate without it.
One can ask that PTI and higher judiciary can be beneficiaries but how can PMLN be? The question is valid and needs further explanation by using conspiracy theories. The supreme leader of PMLN had a history of bitter relationships with the military and there is no need to cite examples from the past because every reader of political developments in Pakistan knows his love-hate relations with the establishment and the impressive story of his survival. However, this time the case is different. Lahori circles believe that Nawaz Sharif did not come to Pakistan from London to become a prime minister so he was almost inactive before and during the February 2024 General Elections and his foremost plan was to install his daughter as his political heir by giving her Punjab and he successfully managed it and divided mandate paved a way for PMLN to get a bonus of the federal government that too went to Sharif family. What else he could desire? Therefore, political chaos does not bother him. The turbulent political fight of his brother in the federal government can be suspended anytime next year by calling new elections for the National Assembly and by that time his daughter would be trained to handle the PM Office while Maryam Aurangzeb who is under training would run for Chief Minister Office in Punjab. This all is possible when PMLN keeps the system under the fear of ‘Russians are coming’. In Pakistan this Russian (a phrase popular for the former Soviet Union) is PTI. The United States and the West are still operating in Europe with this phrase for getting maximum benefits from the European Union. To keep the fear intact, the US never tried to dismantle mainland Russia because there must be one fear leverage for smooth operations in the Global North, and NATO has been a beneficiary of the ‘Russian fear syndrome’ for the population of Europe. The case is the same in Pakistan and politicians like Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Mian Nawaz Sharif, and to some extent, President Asif Zardari are putting pressure on an establishment that if they are not entertained, then PTI is coming. This is one of the reasons that despite almost one and a half years in power before the February 8, 2024 elections, PMLN did not take any tangible action against PTI that had been challenging the foundations of the country.
PTI’s false narrative was never challenged by the 16-month rule of a multiparty government and the PMLN-backed federal minister for Information in the interim government did not challenge PTI narrative against state institutions. No law was passed for special trials of culprits of May 9 in special courts and no amendments were made in the rules to stop the accused of May 9 from contesting general elections in February 2024; knowing that the judiciary has a special attraction for PTI leadership and would not harm it at any cost, resulting May 9 culprits are sitting in Parliament now instead of being in jail. Seasoned political observers believe that PMLN enjoys the situation when PTI puts the establishment at target because this is what Mian Nawaz Sharif always wished to do but is now afraid to repeat his errors. Conspiracies mongers believe that judiciary-establishment contra is also an interesting scene for Nawaz Sharif who had been a victim of this duo in the past so the PMLN government does not want to put water on the fire but rather laidback behavior of the government works as fuel on fire.
The political developments of the last two weeks support this conspiracy theory as PMLN first announced to ban of PTI but backed out from the claim and sent a message to the public that this was not the desire of PMLN’s rather ‘someone else’ pushed PMLN to take this position. Then again while introducing the Constitutional package, PMLN slowly but surely sent a sense that it had not ever had a draft of the Constitutional package but ‘someone’ was working on the Constitutional package. Spreading such doubts and then withdrawing from introducing the Constitutional package was similar to announcing banning PTI and then withdrawing from the stated position. All such acts provide manure for the growing conspiracy theory that PMLN has more options than anybody else to go through the chaos and early elections (maybe next year after March but only for National Assembly) suits PMLN more than anybody else. Early elections for the National Assembly would pave the way for PMLN to install Maryam Nawaz in the Centre and hold Punjab through Maryam Aurangzeb while some seat adjustments in KP and Balochistan would favor Maulana Fazlur Rehman, Baloch leaders, and maybe ANP also.
Conspiracy mongers believe that nothing threatens Mian Nawaz Sharif and there is no chaos for PMLN and whatever the result would be infighting within judiciary and judiciary versus establishment would ultimately benefit the ruling PMLN.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk News Agency.
