Islamabad, Pakistan: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) published a working paper in 2011 prepared by Ari Aisen and Francisco Jose Veiga and this paper extensively explains that political instability is regarded by economists as a serious sickness to economic performance because political instability shortens policymakers’ horizons leading to sub-optimal short term macroeconomic policies. It may also lead to a more frequent switch of policies, creating volatility and thus, negatively affecting macroeconomic performance.
The negative effects of political instability on a wide range of macroeconomic variables including, among others, GDP growth, private investment, and inflation.
Another paper published in 1996 titled “Political Instability and Economic Growth” authored by Alberto Alesina, Sule Ozler, Nouriel Roubini, and Phillip Swagel collected data from 113 countries from 1950 to 1982 to show that GDP growth was significantly lower in countries having the background of political instability.
In another paper written by Jong-a-Pin and published in 2009, it is indicated that higher degrees of political instability lead to lower economic growth because socio-political instability generates an uncertain politico-economic environment, raising risks and reducing investment, shortens the horizons of governments and disrupting long-term economic policies conducive to better economic performance.
The above-mentioned research can be useful to understand why PTI always tries to target political stability in the country and always follows the path of infighting with state institutions and other political parties because PTI has a clear target and that is to ruin the economic growth of Pakistan
Since 2014, PTI has always chosen the path of confrontation, protests, sit-ins, challenging the writ of the state and even writing letters to international forums like IMF for not granting loans to Pakistan, writing letters to US Congressmen to sanction Pakistan over alleged “human rights abuses”. It also wrote letters to the United Nations to take appropriate measures against Pakistan because religious rights were not granted by the Pakistani government.
There is no iota of doubt left that openly inviting IMF to intervene in the country’s affairs through a PTI letter is an appalling and anti-patriotic act that must be condemned and actions must be taken against those who wrote the letter and who directed for writing this letter. The Pakistani government may not be in a position to take legal action against the author of the letter who is the spokesperson of PTI and is an American green card holder but action can be taken against Imran Khan who directed the spokesperson to write the letter to the MD of the IMF to stop loans to Pakistan and to direct Pakistan for vote audit for General Elections 2024.
In the said letter, some points have been raised to create political instability in the country and ultimately delay the economic planning for the convenience of the people and the financial loss of the country through the IMF.
The letter has demanded that the IMF ensure the electoral audit of 30% of seats of the national and provincial assemblies within two weeks.
According to the letter, the IMF should impose conditions related to good governance before providing financial assistance to Pakistan
The letter also said that this role by the IMF would be a great service to the people of Pakistan.
By writing at the end of the letter that if the IMF does this, it will be a great service to Pakistan, Imran Khan means to say that if they (IMF) do this, it will help Pakistan and his people.
The letter also mentioned that PTI leadership has no faith in Pakistani institutions and accountability system so the IMF should play its role in providing justice to PTI. The letter highlights the impression that the writer of the letter has no faith in Pakistani institutions including the judiciary, government, parliament, and other related institutions.
Eccentrically, Imran Khan had been selling the idea in the past that he does not want foreign powers to intervene in Pakistan’s internal affairs and everybody still remembers his popular slogans like “Are we slaves and Absolutely Not?”. However contrary to his slogans, he had always been protecting foreign powers (by halting Chinese projects during his government tenure) and begging for help from US Congressmen and women after his government ended through a vote of no confidence in April 2022.
And the most surprising thing is that Imran Khan who portrayed himself as the greatest leader of the Muslim Ummah (Muslim World), is appealing for help from the USA, which is currently engaged in the genocide of Muslims in Palestine.
Imran’s act of inviting intervention from the International Financial Institution has raised concerns among patriotic circles and every sane Pakistani has been forced to think whether this demand of PTI is not tantamount to anti-nationalism.
Everybody in Pakistan understands that the IMF program is very crucial for Pakistan in the current economic situation. According to the State Bank report, Pakistan’s debt till December 31, 2023, is 65, 189 billion rupees, which has increased by 14,000 billion rupees in just one year. As of December 31, 2022, the total debt of the country was up to 51,058 billion rupees, which became 65,189 billion rupees in one year and this increase in debt in one year was 27.7 percent. If the total debt owed by Pakistan is calculated in dollars, it becomes 131 billion dollars.
In the current financial year, Pakistan had to repay 24.5 billion $ dollars of debt, of which $3.8 billion were interest payments and 20.7 billion were principal amounts.
After the new government comes in, it has to repay a billion $ dollars in April 2024 that was released to borrow from the international market. The new government has to manage the payment of this one billion $ dollars because the loan taken from other countries is rolled over, but the loan taken from the investors in the international market has to be repaid. If someone reviews the above-mentioned sensitivity of Pakistan’s financial health and then looks at the PTI’s constant initiatives to block IMF loaning to Pakistan, there would be no need to learn rocket science to understand how much this party has become against the survival of the country.
This is not the first time that this party has tried to sabotage the IMF agreement. In August 2022 an audio leak of the party’s former finance minister Shaukat Tareen in which he was saying “they could not complete the IMF agreement and writing letter by KPK could easily frustrate Pakistan’s bid to get bailout package from IMF.
PTI is the only party in Pakistan’s politics that has been engaged in trying to play with Pakistan’s economy since day one when Pakistan stood at a weak point in its economic history and faced the risk of default. There is no doubt left that the PTI’s letter is an open conspiracy to use economic blackmail as a political tactic against Pakistan
It may be remembered that PTI flouted its commitments to IMF when it got an IMF loan and created a terrible situation of trust deficit between IMF and Pakistan that played a negative role once the PTI government was voted out and the PDM government came into power.
There is no doubt left that in the lust for power, Imran Khan has become the true “Mir Jafar” of this country who always wished that Pakistan must default, forgetting the reality that this country does not belong to PMLN-PPP, Pakistan Army, or other parties but 250 million people would face the consequences of his blind hate for the country.
