DND Report
Sunday, October 19, 2025, was a hectic day for every journalist interested in Pakistan–Afghanistan relations because the Doha talks were on everyone’s mind and the official statement — which arrived early on October 19, 2025 — was eagerly awaited. Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to a ceasefire after 14 hours of talks in Doha hosted by Qatar and also attended by Turkish officials. Follow-up talks are planned in Istanbul on October 25.
That same morning a special report titled “The denial game: Taliban’s blind spot on TTP terror” appeared in the Express Tribune. Read in the light of this report, the results of the Doha talks suggest that the denial game is over for the Afghan Taliban, who had to accept during talks that their territory had been used by terrorists to attack Pakistan — a fact they had previously denied. Pakistan knows that nothing may fundamentally change because of these Doha talks, but it was a master stroke by Pakistan, which pushed the Afghans to the wall; the Afghans spilled the beans by promising they would talk to the TTP about attacks on Pakistan. Diplomatic circles claim that Pakistan was not shy about raising the issue of Afghan–India collaboration against Pakistani soil. On the other hand, Afghan also played master strokes. The inclusion of Article 2 of the Agreement ‘Cooperation Against Terrorism’ that says Afghanistan assures that it will not allow its territory to be used by any group operating against Pakistan. In return for this assurance, Pakistan shall continue to cooperate with Afghan refugees in accordance with humanitarian and Islamic principles. This clause maybe used to suspend deportation of Afghan refugees back to Afghanistan who would definitely continue work against Pakistan’s cause as claimed by the state of Pakistan earlier.
Article 3 ‘Trade and Human Connectivity’ is also a win of Afghan Taliban as it will restart ‘special pass system’ for civilians, traders, and patients to ensure safe travel and movement instead of valid travel documents such as passport and visa. Pakistan almost two years ago made valid travel document compulsory such as visa and passport for Afghans to enter Pakistan but now through this Article 3, Afghans can enter into Pakistan according to traditional traveling process.
The report “The denial game: Taliban’s blind spot on TTP terror” provides in-depth details that since the Taliban’s rule 2.0, cross-border attacks by the banned Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB) groups (officially designated as “Fitna al-Khawarij”) have dramatically increased — this is not a mere accusation; hard data confirms the surge. The report adds that, according to statistics compiled by security officials, the TTP now operates more than 60 camps across Afghanistan’s Nuristan, Kunar, Nangarhar, Paktiya, Khost, and Paktika provinces, and cross-border infiltrations have surged 36% since June 2025. Nearly 4,000 terrorists entered Khyber Pakhtunkhwa from Afghanistan, and another 1,200 crossed into Balochistan from Zabul, Paktika, Kandahar, and Helmand provinces. “The UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team has endorsed these findings, confirming that Afghan soil continues to serve as a launchpad for terrorism — a clear violation of the 2020 Doha Agreement, in which the Taliban pledged not to allow Afghan territory to be used by transnational terrorists,” the Express Tribune special report by senior journalist and Afghanistan expert Naveed Hussain added.
Naveed’s findings can be read alongside the statement of Masoud Andarabi, acting director of Afghan intelligence (NDS) during 2010–2021, who told the BBC on Sunday that India is using the Afghan Taliban to bleed Pakistan and has long funded the Taliban to inject terrorism into Pakistan. He warned that India planned to fight its war against Pakistan through Afghan soil and that this would be another war of foreign powers fought on Afghan land.
In these circumstances, responsibility increases on the shoulders of Qatar, which facilitated the Taliban–US deal and now the Pak–Afghan Doha talks, because Pakistan has held over 100 meetings with Afghanistan in the last four years but terrorism continues to come from Afghan soil. It is hoped the follow-up talks planned in Istanbul on October 25 will clarify the situation further. It is pertinent to mention that Pakistan has lost more than 95,000 lives in the ongoing war against terrorism and is still fighting terrorists with full resolve and determination. Since 2021, Pakistan has used extensive diplomatic and security channels to address Taliban-hosted attacks by the TTP. Pakistan held 200 border-flag meetings with Afghanistan and lodged 800 formal protests; yet incursions persist, with over 1,050 incidents since December 2021 and 3,800 Pakistani casualties. Even during a 48-hour ceasefire demanded by the Afghan Taliban regime, a suicide bombing on October 17 killed seven Pakistani soldiers.
When asked to comment, a senior diplomat who oversaw Pak–Afghan relations before his retirement, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Afghanistan will continue to provide physical and material support to the Indian proxy (TTP/Fitna al-Khawarij), but this is no longer acceptable to Pakistan and will not be tolerated. He believes it would be better for Afghanistan and its people to rid themselves of this proxy so relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan can remain productive and mutually beneficial.
After the Doha talks, political parties, mostly from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, said they had been urging Pakistan to talk to Afghanistan to resolve the issue, while forgetting that Pakistan had been doing so for a long time. There is a difference between talks held without the involvement of other countries as interlocutors and observers, and talks held with those countries present. Now Turkey and Qatar heard Pakistan’s allegations backed by hard data and witnessed the Afghans’ footless responses and illogical counter-narratives during the talks. It was not one-on-one; rather, an aggrieved Pakistan, an oppressor Afghanistan, and two observers-cum-negotiators sat together at the same table. The immediate achievement of these talks is that the negotiators accepted that the Afghan Taliban harbor terrorists, and the Afghan Taliban promised they would talk to the TTP to stop attacks on Pakistan.
There is no doubt that the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a big win for Pakistan, as Islamabad, in one master stroke, struck at two players — the Afghan Taliban and their operator, India — the biggest loser in this saga. India, which tried to pour oil on the fire by inciting the Afghan Taliban against Pakistan, must now wait to see the outcome of the Doha talks. Since suffering humiliation in Maarka-e-Haq, India has been licking its wounds and does not miss any opportunity to harm Pakistan.
A senior diplomat who is not authorized to speak to the media, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that the signing of the ceasefire agreement between Pakistan and Afghanistan on the 19th is a positive development in which Afghanistan has given assurances to the signatories (which will be closely monitored by Türkiye and Qatar) that it will not allow the use of its soil, nor will it support any terrorist group carrying out attacks inside Pakistan.
Pakistan categorically informed the guarantors that if Afghanistan violates the terms of this agreement, it can be held accountable and can no longer deny or refuse involvement or complicity; Pakistan will then use its right to protect its land and population. For the longevity of this ceasefire agreement, this is the only non-negotiable term that Pakistan has firmly established in the agreement.
The takeaway from the Doha talks is that it will be in the best interest of the Afghan Taliban regime to fulfill its commitments made in the agreement and take action against Fitna al-Khawarij (TTP) and its affiliated groups operating against Pakistan — or face the consequences of thundering PAF fighter jets and the ruthless missiles that recently exposed the façade of “Indian kinetic security” and the Cold Start doctrine.
