Editorial:
Pakistan’s chronic crises in food and energy security are not born of scarcity, they are the direct consequence of inconsistency. A state run on “need-based arrangements” rather than coherent, long-term policy frameworks inevitably lurches from surplus to shortage, from opportunity to crisis, leaving both producers and consumers trapped in a cycle of uncertainty.
Take agriculture, the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Farmers, particularly wheat growers, have become unwilling participants in a policy roulette. In years of bumper harvests, they face the indignity of “no buyers,” forcing distress sales at throwaway prices. The following year, disillusioned and financially strained, they scale back cultivation only for the government to announce higher minimum support prices in a desperate bid to correct the very shortage its earlier mismanagement created. This erratic signaling does more than hurt farmers; it undermines national food security by discouraging consistent production.
The same pattern is painfully evident in the energy sector. Over the past three years, Pakistan witnessed a remarkable grassroots transformation: a surge in solarization that added over 800 MW to the national grid and generated an additional 1,600 MW off-grid. This was not driven by state planning but by citizens responding rationally to rising energy costs and unreliable supply. Instead of nurturing this momentum, policy instability intervened. Shifting net-metering rates, disproportionate pricing structures, and a broader campaign that discouraged private solar adoption have collectively stalled progress. Solarization has reportedly dropped by over 80 percent, a staggering reversal for a country in dire need of sustainable energy solutions.
Ironically, recent geopolitical tensions, particularly disruptions linked to the US-Israel conflict with Iran have underscored the value of that earlier solar expansion. With fuel prices surging and biofuel supplies tightening, Pakistan has once again faced load-shedding as Independent Power Producers (IPPs) scaled back operations due to high input costs. This recurring behavior—where IPPs reduce generation when fuel prices rise—exposes a regulatory vacuum. There appears to be no enforceable mechanism to ensure continuity of supply in times of national need. In this vacuum, it is private solar producers who have quietly cushioned the blow, contributing an estimated 2,400 MW to the system.
Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s recent high-level meeting on energy security offers a mix of reassurance and déjà vu. The emphasis on strategic oil reserves, electric vehicles, battery storage, and local manufacturing of energy solutions reflects an understanding of future needs. Encouragingly, there is recognition of the role of solar energy and the importance of storage technologies to stabilize supply.
Yet, the fundamental question remains: will these initiatives translate into stable, predictable policies? Pakistan does not suffer from a lack of ideas or even resources, it suffers from inconsistency in execution. Announcements of EV transitions and battery storage plans will remain aspirational unless supported by regulatory clarity, investor confidence, and protection from abrupt policy reversals.
The briefing that “energy and food security are stable” may offer temporary comfort, but it risks masking structural weaknesses. Stability built on short-term fixes is inherently fragile. Without institutional reforms that prioritize continuity over convenience, Pakistan will continue to oscillate between extremes.
What is needed is a decisive shift from reactive governance to strategic planning. Farmers need guaranteed procurement mechanisms that are honored consistently. Renewable energy investors—especially households—require stable pricing regimes and long-term incentives. IPPs must be bound by contracts that align private profit with public necessity, particularly during crises.
In essence, Pakistan must move beyond the culture of “managing the moment” to building systems that endure. Until then, every surplus will carry the seeds of the next shortage, and every opportunity will risk being squandered by the very policies meant to harness it.
