By Khalid Khan
The ongoing US-Iran conflict has escalated into a crisis that holds significant implications not just for the Middle East but for global stability. Among the nations most affected by this conflict is Pakistan, situated strategically at the crossroads of key regional players—its neighbors Iran, Afghanistan, and India—and its role in the global arena.
Historically, Pakistan has maintained a complex relationship with both the United States and Iran. Its alliance with the US has been vital for its security and economic interests, yet its proximity to Iran and the shared cultural and religious connections between the two countries make it a key player in any peace-building efforts between the two adversaries. However, Pakistan finds itself in a delicate position, as it balances its long-standing ties with the US and its need for cooperation with Iran.
If left unresolved, US-Iran tensions threaten to spill over into Pakistan’s already fragile security situation. Pakistan’s western border with Afghanistan has long been a hotbed for militant activities, and any instability in Iran could exacerbate these challenges. The Balochistan region, which borders both Iran and Afghanistan, is particularly vulnerable. The province has long struggled with separatist movements and militancy, and any intensification of conflict in Iran could worsen this situation, increasing the chances of militant groups finding new ground for insurgency.
Public opinion in Pakistan remains divided. Many people express solidarity with Iran, rooted in historical ties and shared religious affiliations, while others, especially within the government and military circles, recognize the need to maintain a balanced stance due to Pakistan’s strategic interests in aligning with the US. This ambivalence is reflected in the country’s diplomatic efforts, as Pakistan urges both the US and Iran to de-escalate the situation through dialogue and negotiations.
Human suffering, a constant theme in such conflicts, also weighs heavily on Pakistan. With millions of Afghan refugees already in Pakistan and the looming threat of additional displacement, the humanitarian crisis is poised to worsen. The cost of the conflict will be felt by ordinary people, who bear the brunt of the violence and instability that often accompanies regional tensions.
Pakistan is also closely monitoring the reactions of its regional neighbors. Afghanistan, already dealing with its own internal strife, could see an uptick in militancy as groups such as the Taliban may seek to exploit the power vacuum created by the US-Iran tension. The fragile Afghan peace process stands at risk of crumbling as the situation in Iran continues to evolve.
India, while maintaining strong economic and military ties with the US, has cultivated its own relationship with Iran. New Delhi depends on Iranian oil, and both nations have shared interests in stabilizing Afghanistan. However, India is now faced with the challenge of navigating the diplomatic fallout from the US-Iran confrontation. India’s concerns about Pakistan’s involvement and its security interests are intensified as the conflict worsens.
China, a key ally of Pakistan, also has interests at stake. As a major investor in Pakistan’s infrastructure, particularly through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), China has a vested interest in ensuring the region remains stable. Instability in Iran or any spillover effect from the US-Iran conflict could jeopardize China’s long-term strategic investments in the region, as well as its Belt and Road Initiative. The potential for disruptions to the critical trade route that connects China to Pakistan is a significant concern for Beijing.
Russia, while not directly involved, also has regional concerns. Its growing influence in Central Asia and its involvement in the Syrian conflict put Russia in a unique position to assess the potential impacts of the US-Iran tensions. A prolonged conflict could alter the balance of power in the region, especially in the Middle East, and Russia’s influence in countries like Syria and Iraq could be tested.
As the US-Iran standoff continues, Pakistan’s leadership is faced with the daunting task of navigating a complex geopolitical landscape. The country must maintain strong ties with the US, while ensuring that its relationship with Iran remains cordial, especially given the shared interests in regional stability. Pakistan’s foreign policy experts have consistently emphasized the importance of diplomacy and dialogue in resolving tensions, urging Pakistan to avoid being drawn into a conflict that could devastate the region.
The human cost of this conflict is already being felt in Pakistan, and it is likely to increase as the situation unfolds. Refugees, displaced people, and civilians caught in the crossfire will continue to suffer. The prospect of further destabilization in Pakistan’s border regions and the potential for increased violence and extremism are serious concerns.
Looking forward, Pakistan’s approach will likely continue to focus on regional stability, leveraging its diplomatic ties to mediate tensions and promote dialogue. The country will need to strengthen its internal security, address the growing threat of extremism, and manage its relationships with key regional players, including Iran, Afghanistan, India, China, and Russia.
In this complex geopolitical puzzle, Pakistan’s response to the US-Iran conflict will be critical not only for its future but for the entire region. As one of the most influential countries in South Asia, Pakistan must act with caution, diplomacy, and foresight to avoid being swept up in a conflict that could alter the course of regional history.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk News.
