By Prof. Dr. Taimoor ul Hassan
In early 2025, South Asia witnessed a harrowing escalation that once again brought two nuclear states eyeball to eyeball. The crisis began with a deadly attack in Pahalgam in Illegally Indian Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (IIOJK), which left dozens of Indian tourists dead.
This tragic event ignited a swift and forceful military response by India after accusing Pakistan of the Pahalgam incident within 20 minutes. From April 22, the blame game continued without providing any proof or without conducting any investigation till May 6-7 night when India launched airstrikes inside Pakistani territory. What followed was a rapid escalation of hostilities that pushed both nuclear-armed neighbors to the brink of a catastrophic conflict.
The tense situation was further inflamed by a swirl of unverified and alarming reports propagating by Indian media, including claims of a leakage or security breach at Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. Though later proven false, these rumors intensified global fears of a nuclear confrontation. Amid this dangerously volatile environment, then-U.S. President Donald Trump played a vital role in de-escalating the crisis by mediating behind the scenes to broker a ceasefire agreement.
The 2025 Pahalgam Crisis: A Flashpoint on the Edge of Nuclear War
The terrorist attack in Phalgam shocked India, prompting an aggressive retaliatory strike deep inside Pakistan. The Indian Air Force’s incursion marked a significant escalation in a region where military responses have often been limited to cross-border shelling or covert operations.
Pakistan’s counterstrikes and heightened military alert brought both countries dangerously close to nuclear confrontation. Reports emerged of mobilized nuclear-capable delivery systems and raised readiness at nuclear command centers. The very possibility of nuclear weapons being deployed became a pressing concern for the global community.
False reports circulated in international media and social networks about potential leaks from Pakistan’s nuclear facilities. Although Pakistani authorities quickly denied these claims, the damage was done — the rumors intensified tensions and raised the stakes for all parties involved.
Nuclear Arsenal Overview: The Balancing Act of Deterrence
Both India and Pakistan maintain significant nuclear arsenals that underpin their security doctrines but also fuel an arms race fraught with risk.
According to the latest estimates in 2025:
– India holds approximately 170 nuclear warheads, backed by a growing triad capability including land-based missiles, aircraft, and submarine-launched ballistic missiles. India maintains a formal No First Use (NFU) policy, positioning its nuclear arsenal as a retaliatory deterrent.
– Pakistan possesses roughly 180 nuclear warheads, slightly outnumbering India’s stockpile. Pakistan’s doctrine rejects NFU and includes the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) intended to deter conventional military aggression.
This delicate balance of power is sustained by deterrence theory — the promise of devastating retaliation that discourages either side from initiating a nuclear strike. However, South Asia’s unique mix of historical grievances, political rivalries, and geographic proximity complicates this theory’s effectiveness.
The Crucial Role of U.S. Mediation: Donald Trump’s Intervention
As tensions escalated dangerously in early 2025, the global community watched anxiously. With a nuclear flashpoint looming, diplomatic efforts intensified. In this critical hour, U.S. President Donald Trump emerged as a pivotal figure, using his influence to bring India and Pakistan back from the edge.
President Trump’s mediation involved direct communications with both governments, emphasizing the catastrophic consequences of nuclear war. He reportedly warned that any nuclear exchange could result in millions of casualties, regional destabilization, and long-lasting humanitarian crises. Behind-the-scenes diplomacy, including the involvement of China and Saudi Arabia, culminated in a ceasefire agreement that restored a fragile peace.
Modi’s move to Nuclearizing Conventional Warfare and the Persistent Challenges of Nuclear Deterrence in South Asia
While nuclear weapons have arguably prevented full-scale war between India and Pakistan since their tests in 1998, the 2025 crisis reveals several enduring vulnerabilities:
1. High Risk of Miscalculation: Rapid escalation and short missile flight times leave little room for error or second-guessing.
2. Ambiguous Nuclear Doctrines: Pakistan’s refusal to adopt No First Use and its deployment of tactical nuclear weapons increase instability.
3. Proxy Conflicts and Terrorism: Non-state actors operating in Kashmir complicate state-to-state relations and provoke military responses.
4. Information Warfare and Misinformation: Fake news and rumors, especially regarding nuclear security, fuel panic and mistrust.
5. Absence of Effective Crisis Communication: Lack of direct hotlines and regular military-to-military contacts hinders timely de-escalation.
Toward Transformative Peace: A Way Forward
- The Kashmir issue needs immediate resolution per UNSC resolutions
- Avoiding another near-miss like the 2025 Pahalgam crisis requires moving beyond the fragile status quo of nuclear deterrence to build a durable peace architecture in South Asia:
– Establish a Permanent Nuclear Risk Reduction Center (NRRC)
– Clarify and Harmonize Nuclear Doctrines
– Freeze Tactical Nuclear Weapon Deployment
– Shift Focus from Military to Development Budgets
– Promote Responsible Media Practices
– Enhance People-to-People and Economic Engagement
– Revitalize Regional Forums
Conclusion: From Deterrence to Durable Peace
The 2025 Phalgam crisis and the subsequent brinkmanship serve as a stark reminder of South Asia’s nuclear dangers. While deterrence may have prevented war, it has not prevented suffering, instability, or the perpetual threat of escalation.
Donald Trump’s timely intervention averted disaster, but it is only a temporary fix. A transformative peace requires vision, courage, and cooperation from both India and Pakistan, supported by the international community.
The millions of young people living under the shadow of nuclear weapons deserve more than survival. They deserve a future built on trust, dialogue, and shared prosperity.
The nuclear sword of Damocles must be replaced with a bridge of peace — for only then can South Asia truly flourish.
Note: Prof. Dr. Taimoor ul Hassan is former Dean at Beaconhouse National University and University of Central Punjab; presently Professor of Mass Communication at University of Central Punjab.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk.
