Monitoring Desk: The 16th BRICS summit kicked off in Kazan on October 22. It will consist of two parts. The first is a meeting of the organization’s member countries, which will be devoted to “Strengthening multilateralism for equitable global development and security.” The second part is a meeting in the “BRICS Plus/Outreach” format, the topic of which will be “BRICS and the Global South – Jointly Building a Better World.”
On the event’s final day, delegates will participate in two plenary sessions in the BRICS+ format, after which the Kazan Declaration will be adopted. Russian President Vladimir Putin will announce the Kazan Declaration on 24 October during a press conference.
BRICS was initially comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and later South Africa – has expanded rapidly to embrace Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. Turkey, Pakistan, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have formally applied for membership, and a few other countries have expressed interest in joining.
Why are developing countries showing interest in BRICS?
The BRICS summit is the largest international event in Russia after Russia – Ukraine conflict started. It is difficult to come up with a more visual demonstration that all attempts by the West to “isolate Russia” have failed, but in principle, it became clear in 2022, and after what Israel has staged in Gaza (and now in Lebanon), the lies of Western calls to “meet the whole world to punish the aggressor” became clear even to the most simple-minded amateurs.
The symbolic significance of 24 countries attending the event is a fundamental jolt to Western hegemony in international affairs. The growth and popularity of BRICS cannot be understood in isolation from the largest transformation of the world order. BRICS was created less than two decades ago, but even then, in 2006, it was clear that the world was entering a new era. The formation of a new world order began – and although neither the speed of this process nor the intensity of the struggle was yet clear, everyone understood that the scale of the changes would be huge and universal. Just a few months after the formation of the BRIC (then the unification consisted of four countries), Vladimir Putin made a speech in which he warned about the futility of the attempts of the West (and the first stage of the United States) for the construction of a unipolar world.
The next year, 2008, the global financial crisis broke out, for which the United States was entirely in, and given that it was they who controlled the global financial system, it was the entire planet to pay the bills for American greed. By this point, the United States had already turned Iraq, a key country in the Middle East, so that the “Arab Spring” that began three years later with its grave consequences for the entire region was predetermined. In 2014, Russia entered into an open geopolitical conflict with the West when NATO attempted to take over Ukraine; resulting in a series of economic sanctions over Russia. Since then, the West has been weakened within it, while the Global South has been strengthened. The weakening of the West was an objective process that had geopolitical, historical, economic, and other explanations but the main thing is the reality that the old era of Western domination is over and this is manifested in the form of the collapse of the globalization project under the Anglo-Saxon rules, which the main bet was made in the United States and Europe. Globalization was not completed but it began to fall not because of Russia or China but because the protectionist approach of the West was fundamentally against Western Globalisation. Visa restrictions, economic sanctions, and soft coups against individual countries of the Global South confirmed to the developing world that Western Globalisation had errors in its very design. Moreover, constant sanctions, color revolutions, Arab Spring, and other kinds of interference in developing countries resulted in a soft coup against the West and it became impossible for the West to make the whole world live according to the rules written in the West (political, financial, economic, trade, cultural, ideological). In these circumstances, the BRICS offered the developing world a platform that was non-hegemonic, based on the principles of non-interference and challenging the protectionist approach of the West. Over the years, the West has weakened even more, and this concerns not only its position on the world stage but also its internal state. US defeat in Afghanistan woke up Europe that the US could not be a net security provider and the EU started arranging its security dynamics. This does not mean that America no longer has the strength to fight for the retention of the position of the world hegemon. Therefore, America will try to restrict those whom it sees as a real or potential threat to its hegemony.
Is BRICS challenging Western hegemony?
The fact is that the bloc will have to become more and more anti-American – not because its goal is to confront the United States, but because the United States itself will not leave it alone. For America, any projects for the construction of an alternative global architecture (financial, trade, military) are categorically unacceptable, especially those that unite the key countries of the non-Western world – such as China, India, Russia, the Arab world, and Latin Americans. The United States will increase pressure on the BRICS countries to prevent or at least slow their movement toward the integration of the same financial systems.
BRICS did not ask about the expansion until 2022 – and only then did the association begin to receive new members. Of the six guests (and those who were entrenched) one country fell off immediately: Argentina, when the pro-American and anti-Chinese-minded President Mirei came to power. Saudi Arabia has a little stalled; Prince Mohammed has taken a pause, and a full-fledged accession to BRICS may not be confirmed at the current summit in Kazan.
However, Iran, Egypt, the UAE, and Ethiopia joined the BRICS, which from the “five” became the “nine”. With this expansion, BRICS has already become a truly global association, because before it was not represented by the two-billion Islamic world at all, and now there are as many as three countries from it. A few important countries of the Islamic world are in line: even if the issue with Saudi Arabia is still raised, many Muslim states have shown interest like Pakistan, Turkey, and Malaysia.
Of course, there are many disagreements between the BRICS countries. The most notable are the Sino-Indian (although on the sidelines of this summit will be the first official meeting of Xi Jinping and Modi in four and a half years – they have not held negotiations since the border conflict in the Gymalayas in the spring of 2020). However, the existing differences are nothing compared to what unites the BRICS+ countries, and this is an understanding that the West has neither the right nor the ability to impose its “picture of the world order” on everyone else. Within the BRICS, there will always be disagreements over the desired speed and methods of new trading currencies, but no one questions the fact that the end of Western hegemony meets the interests of all countries that consolidate around the BRICS.
The issue of full-fledged accession of new members to BRICS this year is not on the agenda as the BRICS association has almost doubled in size, and those who have just joined have not yet fully adjusted. It is not easy to combine further expansion with the effectiveness of practical work.
There will be no decision about prospects for creating a single BRICS currency at this Summit but different ideas will be discussed and the decision will be taken through consensus.
Does Ukraine matter for BRICS members?
The BRICS countries have agreed on the wording of Ukraine, which will be included in the final declaration of the summit. The wording has already been agreed upon, no one has any objections to it. A common position, a common approach that was agreed upon for inclusion in the declaration.
The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry criticized UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres for attending BRICS stating Guterres’ participation in the BRICS summit will not help establish peace, but will only harm the reputation of the UN.
The conflict in Ukraine was mentioned by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the start of negotiations with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Indian media reported that India is in favor of resolving problems by peaceful means and supports the speedy restoration of peace and stability.
The Reorientation of Global Trade
Anti-Russian sanctions are leading to the fact that the Russian Federation is curtailing trade with the West, while, on the contrary, increasing it with the BRICS countries. Russia’s trade turnover with the BRICS countries grew by 6.3% in the first five months. Positive dynamics are also expected for the entire year of 2024. In 2023, Russian trade to BRICS countries recorded a 28% increase compared to 2022.
Russia’s foreign trade for January- July 2024 increased by 20.25% compared to the previous year, to $87.9 billion. Exports for the reporting period increased by $1.8 billion and reached $241 billion, while imports decreased by $13 billion, to $153.1 billion. Thus, Russia’s trade turnover decreased by 2.8% in January-July 2024 compared to the same period last year, amounting to $394.1 billion. Russian exports to Asia grew in the first half of 2024. It increased by $12 billion compared to 2023, while the total value of exports in all directions remained almost unchanged. Russia – China trade is increasing but the issue of payments remains to be resolved due to certain Western restrictions. Even small regional banks in China began to increasingly refuse to accept payments from the Russian Federation, although they had previously worked with Russian businesses. Chinese President Xi Jinping is in Kazan and the key objective of the Kazan meeting is to lay the groundwork for reforming the global financial system where multilateral payments are possible even in the presence of Western sanctions against Russia, China, and Iran. The leaders of 22 countries are taking part in the BRICS Summit and their meetings would cover issues of financial cooperation within the group.
The railways of Russia, Mongolia, and China have confirmed plans to increase freight traffic through the Russia—Mongolia—China railway corridor. The parties confirmed plans to increase the volume of cargo transportation by the Ulaanbaatar Railway to 50 million tons by 2030 and to 90 million tons by 2050. A second narrow-gauge track will be put into operation at the Dzamyn-Uud station, which will allow receiving more trains from the Chinese railway.
Sideline Meetings at BRICS
UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan held talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin over an informal dinner at the Russian leader’s Novo-Ogaryovo residence near Moscow. During the meeting, Putin said that all agreements between the UAE and the Russian Federation are being fulfilled and fully correspond to the level of strategic partnership. He also pointed out that trade turnover between the countries has tripled over the past three years. Mutual investments have reached US$7 billion. About 60 projects totalling US$2 billion are being implemented through sovereign funds.
Modi met Pezeshkian
Indian Prime Minister Modi and Iranian President Pezeshkian held a meeting at Kazan and both discussed the ME situation as well as of alarming situation in Afghanistan.
