By Farzeen Nadeem
Pakistan is home to over 3.7 million (official figure) Afghan refugees, making it the second-largest hosting refugee country in the world. This great resettlement is posing serious threats to Pakistan’s cohesion and national security framework.
The persistence of Afghan refugees, who crossed the borders of Afghanistan into Pakistan after the Taliban returned to power in August 2021; has escalated security threats manifolds, especially in the context of the long and sensitive 2670 km Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Policymakers in Pakistan are under pressure to meet humanitarian responsibilities, and at the same time manage other pressing security challenges including terrorist activities and border security. The crisis cuts across the economy, and social integration and therefore calls for a serious re-assessment of Pakistan’s response to the issue of refugee management, its policies, and strategies for peace in the expected saturation of such response.
Almost 94% of wire mesh fencing and infrared surveillance have been completed but several unauthorized crossing areas remain as potential threats to security
Current Scale of Afghan Migration Invasion of Pakistan: Continuing Chaos Following US Support of the Taliban
A recent report issued by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) demonstrates the penetration of civilian Afghan migration into Pakistan on a never-before-seen scale. According to the data on Aeps, the overall Afghan population in Pakistan with immigration status increased to 3.7 million in 2024 and is still increasing.
The security challenges along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have been aggravated due to the recent increase in cross-border movement
Latest Migration Statistics and Trends in 2023 Report
Currently, three different categories of Afghans reside in Pakistan with different legal statuses. About 1.3 million are officially registered as refugees on account of Proof of Registration (PoR) cards, whereas about 840000 have been issued Afghan Citizenship Cards (ACC). Approximately 775000 are still unaccounted for in terms of registration, which means they hold no documentation whatsoever, further adding massive security challenges and bureaucratic hurdles. After the August 2021 Taliban takeover, around 600,000 Afghans relocated to Pakistan during that initial exodus.
Serious Security Concerns
The security challenges along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border have been aggravated due to the recent increase in cross-border movement and terrorist attacks along the western border towns. The security situation has further deteriorated due to the escalation in illegal crossings. Even after enhancing fencing and surveillance along the 2600 kilometers long boundary with Afghanistan, Pakistan has found it difficult to keep the border secured. Almost 94% of the border infrastructure development project consisting of wire mesh fencing, and infrared surveillance has been completed. However, the mountainous region and many unauthorized crossing areas remain as potential threats to security.
Pakistani security officials have reported increased military activity, particularly in border provinces. Out of 24 suicide bombings in recent months, 14 involved illegal immigrants from Afghanistan, in addition, they are also involved in Arms and Narcotics smuggling. TTP is also finding it easy to increase its terrorist activities using these illegal immigrants thus causing chaos and fear amongst the innocent population of Pakistan.
Moreover, the absence of valid crossing documents and using an old outdated version of the local slip which can be issued to anyone has facilitated terrorists to enter Pakistan without any hindrances. Strangely, the Taliban Government is still adamant about continuing the same old outdated procedure instead of a valid visa system.
Polio eradication campaigns also face resistance in Afghan refugee housing colonies as the population is averse to administering polio drops to their young ones
Another excuse mentioned is the divided families across the border, there are families divided across the border in Punjab, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan, but they can only meet and cross over the border with valid visa documents. Pakistan being a responsible state cannot allow cross-border movement without valid visa documents and it is now time for these divided villages must decide about their future and adopt the valid and legal procedure to cross the border. This situation is particularly relevant in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which have divided villages along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
Economic Burden Assessment
The economic implications of hosting Afghan refugees have placed unprecedented strain on Pakistan’s financial resources, with recent estimates indicating a cost of PKR 610.90 billion over three years for managing the current refugee population. Impact on Public Resources The influx has significantly stressed Pakistan’s public infrastructure, particularly in border regions where essential services are already scarce and limited. Key impact areas include; Healthcare facilities operating at 175% capacity in refugee-dense areas; educational institutions accommodating 26 million out-of-school children; including half a million refugee children; water and sanitation systems requiring substantial upgrades to meet increased demand, and housing shortages in urban areas driving up rental costs. It is worth mentioning that polio eradication campaigns also face resistance in Afghan refugee housing colonies as the population is averse to administering polio drops to their young ones.
Changes in the Legal Framework
Pakistan’s immigration laws have undergone significant changes. The Ministry of State and Frontier Regions (SAFRON), through its Office of the High Commissioner for Afghan Refugees, is working with international organizations to implement these changes. Recent legal changes include:
- Documentation Reform
- Introduction of a Biometric Verification System
- Improved Border Management Protocols
- Simplified Registration Procedures
- Rights and Security Access to Bank Accounts for Registered Migrants
Border management powers of people have been strengthened using rights-based and gender-sensitive approaches. This includes defence planning, legal services, and maintenance case management. This strategy is now included in the tripartite agreement between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and UNHCR, which has been extended until 2021, and the Regional Strategy for Afghan Refugee Resolution (SSAR). These processes provide a systematic way to manage refugees and discuss security issues. The 1993 Memorandum of Understanding between UNHCR and Pakistan continues to be the foundation for international refugee protection while fulfilling domestic policies. The system has helped process 251,000 new registration applications as of August 2021, reflecting the persistence of the refugee management crisis.
Pakistan’s management of the Afghan refugee crisis represents one of the most complex humanitarian and security challenges in South Asia. The presence of 3.7 million Afghan refugees has created multifaceted pressures on Pakistan’s national infrastructure, from border security to economic resources. Security concerns remain paramount, particularly with increased cross-border militant activities and strain on law enforcement capabilities. The economic burden also continues to stretch Pakistan’s public resources beyond sustainable limits. Social integration efforts show mixed results, with successful community initiatives counterbalanced by persistent cultural tensions and limited access to public services. Pakistan’s policy response demonstrates a shift toward structured management frameworks, though international aid meets only 22.5% of requested assistance. The situation demands renewed international commitment and support to address both the humanitarian needs of these Afghan refugees and the security concerns of Pakistan.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk News.
