By Ambassador ® Syed Hasan Javed
As China advances rapidly to reclaim its historical position as ‘Number One global economic power’, its list of achievements keeps steadily growing. Whether China’s GDP exceeds American GDP in 2027 or 2028 or earlier or later does not matter.
China has more billionaires than the combined USA and India
Nor for that matter, how many military bases, America has around the world. China exceeded the American GDP on the basis of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2014. China has more billionaires than the combined USA and India. China has filed 2.5 times more patent applications than the USA in 2020.
China is the first country in human history to lift nearly 800 million people out of poverty, and also adding 600 million as middle class
Beijing has exceeded New York, in the number of billionaires. China does not only sew clothes, shoes or manufactures toys, electronics, or solar panels, it has constructed more than 30,000 kilometers of Bullet trains, which is more than the combined total of the world. China leads in the number of researchers and research publications. Almost half of the top ten Universities filing patient applications in the world during 2020, were all Chinese.
The book is meant to prepare Pakistan’s ruling elite, brought up looking towards the Western world for more than two centuries of British colonial rule and a century of sharing the American dream, but living like paupers
The Americans may still have some elitist Universities, but China’s Universities in the global Top 500, have increased to 170. China also became Number One in the number of its Companies in Fortune 500 with 129 companies, as compared to 121 US companies.
China has already become Number One in a hundred economic and technical indices. China is the first country in human history to lift nearly 800 million people out of poverty, and also adding 600 million as middle class. China did not succeed, because it had a One Party state, one strongman after another, or an authoritarian system of governance. China succeeded because they were Chinese, with a rich cultural heritage, and with successive generations of great leaders brought up on meritocracy from the grassroots level. Clearly, China’s rise is courtesy of its rich soft power values.
This book is a ‘Future watch’ narrative on the mega global power shifts. China is right on target to be Number One, by the next five years, or latest by 2030 AD under any case. The book is meant to prepare Pakistan’s ruling elite, brought up looking towards the Western world for more than two centuries of British colonial rule and a century of sharing the American dream, but living like paupers.
For the anglicized Pakistanis, the fall of the British Empire was accompanied by another English-speaking empire, so the transition was not felt. China is however a different cultural paradigm. The rise of China is no aberration, but a repeat of history.
For the Muslim world, though all is not bad news! The good news is that by the year 2030 AD, D-8(Developing Eight) Muslim countries i.e. Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, Egypt, Bangladesh, Nigeria, and Malaysia are likely to have a combined GDP, equal to so-called the 2 plus half union (actually 27 members) European Union. According to credible estimates, the EU GDP is likely to fall to 10% from 17% (in 2021) of global GDP, by 2030AD.
The critical era of the global transformation in this respect is hence the period between 2020-2030 AD. The Chinese have secured their place. The D-8 needs to be on guard to remain on target. The Western Powers are likely to make every effort to destabilize particularly the four Regional influential i.e. Turkey, Egypt, Iran, and Pakistan. The Americans have launched Cold War II to bring down China. They brought down Germany, Japan, and the Soviet Union during the last hundred years, as part of their manifest destiny and American exceptionalism.
NATO is now squabbling with Russia. The Muslim world in general and the D-8 in particular needs now to team up with China and Russia, in building a community of shared destiny, and regain their place in history. The Gulf nations in particular need to evolve a mechanism for payment in bilateral currencies for imports/exports of Oil/Gas with China, in place of the current dominant reserve currencies. China needs to launch ‘Asian Monetary Union. No matter what happens and whether we like it or not, Pakistan will be profoundly impacted by this tectonic global power shift. It, therefore, needs to get its act together!