By Khalid Khan
Pakistan’s government has announced that Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders must leave Pakistan by March 31, 2025.
This is not the first time that Pakistan decided to send Afghans back to Pakistan, as such decisions had been announced in the past several times with no tangible results. However, every withdrawal of the government’s decision to send Afghans home resulted in more terrorism in Pakistan and more tangible and credible reasons to believe that Pakistan’s surge in terrorism is directly linked with Afghans living in Pakistan. Pakistan is witnessing an alarming resurgence of terrorism, raising serious concerns about national security and stability. Recent statistics paint a grim picture. According to the Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (ICPS), Pakistan recorded 517 terrorist attacks in 2023, but this number surged to 1,099 in 2024, marking a 112% increase within a year. These attacks have primarily targeted security personnel, civilians, and government installations, leading to significant casualties and a growing sense of insecurity across the country.
The most affected regions remain Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, where militant activities have intensified. In the first three months of 2024 alone, KP witnessed over 350 attacks, with 70% of them specifically targeting security forces. Reports from the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) highlight a 174% increase in terrorist incidents in KP in 2023, while Balochistan experienced a 39% rise, reflecting a disturbing escalation in militant aggression.
“Terrorist incidents in border areas have increased by 80%, indicating weak border control and the persistent challenge of cross-border infiltration”
A shift in tactics and strategies is also evident. Groups such as the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) have adopted more sophisticated methods (after the Afghan Taliban interim regime started collaboration with ISIS-K by demarcating areas of operations), employing suicide bombings, improvised explosive devices (IEDs), and advanced technology to challenge Pakistan’s security apparatus. The Institute for Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) reports that more than 60% of terrorist attacks in 2024 have specifically targeted military convoys, police stations, and sensitive installations, particularly in the southern KP districts of Bannu, Lakki Marwat, Dera Ismail Khan, and Waziristan.
One of the primary factors behind this resurgence is the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan. Since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul in August 2021, terrorist organizations have found safe havens across the border, regrouping and launching attacks inside Pakistan. Terrorist incidents in border areas have increased by 80%, indicating weak border control and the persistent challenge of cross-border infiltration. The Center for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) reported that in just January and February 2024, 685 security personnel were killed, marking an alarming 120% increase compared to the previous year. These numbers underscore the urgent need for Pakistan to reassess its counterterrorism policies and regional security strategies.
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Balochistan, already a volatile region, has witnessed a surge in insurgent activities, with groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) carrying out high-profile attacks. In April 2024, an attack near Quetta resulted in the martyrdom of 12 security personnel, while a suicide bombing in Gwadar claimed the lives of five individuals, including Chinese engineers. Such attacks not only pose a direct threat to national security but also endanger the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a vital economic initiative for Pakistan’s future. The escalation in violence suggests that terrorist groups are not only targeting security forces but are also attempting to destabilize key economic projects, creating long-term security and economic challenges for the country.
“Pakistan stands at a crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether the country regains control over its security landscape or continues to grapple with an ever-growing terrorist menace. The urgency to act has never been greater”
Pakistan’s counterterrorism response has been met with both praise and criticism. The National Action Plan (NAP), introduced in the wake of the 2014 Army Public School (APS) attack, initially showed promise but has lost momentum over time. While military operations such as Zarb-e-Azb and Radd-ul-Fasaad have successfully dismantled some terrorist networks, the 2024 surge in attacks indicates that these measures have not completely eradicated the threat. Security analysts argue that militant sleeper cells remain active, and cross-border support for terrorist groups continues to fuel their operations. Military solutions alone cannot eliminate terrorism unless Pakistan also tackles the ideological, financial, and logistical support networks that sustain these groups.
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The country’s economic instability further exacerbates the crisis. Unemployment, poverty, and political unrest have created an environment ripe for radicalization, particularly in KP and Balochistan, where disenfranchised youth are vulnerable to extremist recruitment. Terrorist organizations exploit these socio-economic grievances, offering financial incentives and a false sense of purpose to those who feel abandoned by the state. To effectively combat terrorism, Pakistan must address these root causes by investing in education, healthcare, and employment opportunities in underdeveloped regions. Without long-term economic and social reforms, counterterrorism efforts will continue to yield only temporary results.
Moreover, Pakistan’s struggle against terrorism is not just a domestic issue—it is intertwined with regional and international security dynamics. The global response to terrorism, particularly from neighboring countries and international organizations, plays a crucial role in shaping Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy. However, international engagement with Pakistan has remained inconsistent. While foreign allies have occasionally extended intelligence-sharing and counterterrorism assistance, diplomatic pressures and shifting geopolitical interests have influenced the level of support Pakistan receives. The country must actively engage with global counterterrorism frameworks, seek strategic partnerships, and enhance border security cooperation with regional allies, particularly China, Iran, and Central Asian states. A unified regional approach is essential to dismantling terrorist networks operating across borders.
At the same time, Pakistan’s law enforcement and intelligence agencies require structural reforms to enhance operational efficiency. Strengthening counterterrorism laws, improving prosecution mechanisms, and ensuring that arrested militants do not return to the battlefield through weak judicial processes are critical challenges that demand immediate attention. Intelligence coordination between military and civilian agencies must be streamlined to preempt attacks rather than react to them. Without a robust legal and institutional framework, Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts will remain reactive rather than proactive.
Internal political instability has further weakened Pakistan’s counterterrorism strategy. Security experts observe that whenever political crises intensify, terrorist groups exploit the situation to expand their activities. In 2024, Pakistan’s political leadership remained preoccupied with internal conflicts, crackdowns on opposition parties, and legal battles, diverting attention away from the worsening security situation. The lack of a unified national security approach has emboldened militant groups, allowing them to strike at will. The absence of coordination between federal and provincial governments further complicates counterterrorism efforts, as each entity follows a different strategy rather than working towards a collective goal.
The alarming rise in terrorism presents Pakistan with a stark choice—either take decisive action to curb the growing threat or risk descending into a prolonged cycle of violence. Strengthening law enforcement agencies, improving intelligence-sharing, and reinforcing border security are critical steps. However, counterterrorism efforts cannot rely solely on military solutions. A multi-faceted approach that includes political stability, socio-economic development, and a robust legal framework is essential for long-term success.
Pakistan stands at a crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether the country regains control over its security landscape or continues to grapple with an ever-growing terrorist menace. The urgency to act has never been greater.
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article/Opinion/Comment are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk (DND). Assumptions made within the analysis are not reflective of the position of the DND Thought Center and Dispatch News Desk News.
