Russian Revised Nuclear Doctrine- Lessons for Pak-India relations

Russia has the largest nuclear arsenal in the world and has been discussing changes to its nuclear policy since September.

Scenarios in which nuclear weapons could be deployed now include:

1. Critical threat to Russian sovereignty
2. Aggression by a non-nuclear state; supported by a nuclear state. It will now be treated as a joint attack, and;
3. Ballistic missiles targeting Russia

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin signed the new doctrine hours after Ukraine launched US-supplied tactical missiles “ATACMs” into Russian territory. Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov briefed the media on the issue” The fact that several ATACMs were used in the Bryansk region, of course, it’s a signal that they want to escalate and it is impossible to use high tech missiles without Americans. Putin has said this many times”

It is important to note that the USA and Russia hold 88% of the world’s nuclear arsenal and without any arms control treaty in effect between them, the prospects of arms control between them and the world at large are very bleak. A year into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia suspended the New Start Treaty a 2010 agreement with the US to reduce nuclear arms, citing America’s involvement in the conflict.

Donald Trump is weeks away from assuming office and he promised to end the war in 24hrs. However, he did not specify how it would be done. Any kind of rapprochement with Russia would be highly unlikely given the current scenario. But Trump’s diplomatic unpredictability will likely benefit Russia. Trump’s stance of extracting equal funding of NATO by European allies and his policy pledges of non-intervention, trade protectionism, and America first will likely irk Western European allies.

Before delving into Russia’s revised nuclear doctrine’s implications for Indo-Pak relations. We first need to understand why nuclear doctrine exists. The US and Russia have their own that they review periodically and other nuclear powers do too. They serve basically different purposes because of the difference in the bureaucratic systems of governance of every nuclear power. For example, the US is a more legalistic society with a two-party system. When there is a change of party in power, these doctrinal documents that have been legally adopted still carry on. But in Russia it’s very different, Russia adopted publically published military doctrines including nuclear posture doctrine. These documents play a very important role because they play as a nuclear deterrent. The nuclear doctrine is usually used for brinkmanship. Since the beginning of the nuclear age, brinkmanship has been used for deterrence.

As far as India and Pakistan are concerned their nuclear doctrines are an important factor in maintaining regional stability. Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific and its deterrence posture is defensive where whereas India has a more open-ended nuclear doctrine with no mention of any potential adversary. Both India and Pakistan are defacto nuclear powers as both states are not signatories of NPT. Their relations in the realm of nuclear politics will definitely have regional and international implications. Following are the lessons both India and Pakistan can learn from the revised Russian doctrine and its consequent impact on relations with the US and its Western European allies.

1. The first lesson is about maintaining credible deterrence without having to engage in arms race. This highlights the importance of maintaining qualitative improvements in the nuclear arsenals. Maintaining credibility is key here. In the context of recently revised nuclear doctrine, Russia says that nuclear strikes could be justified by aggression against the Russian Federation by any non-nuclear state with participation crucially or support of a nuclear state. Russia is maintaining the credibility of deterrence in the wake of Ukraine using US-supplied ATACM on Russian territory. This clearly meant to deter the US and its continued support for Ukraine. This is a stark departure from Russian nuclear doctrine back in October 2022 when there was more nuclear saber-rattling than maintaining credibility of nuclear threats.
2. This kind of confrontational situation between Russia and the USA reveals the risks involved in escalation dominance strategies. There were multiple calls between US and Russian counterparts during the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Both secretary defenses Loyld Austin and Sergei Lavrov as well as General Mark Millie and General Valery Gerasimov to clarify what Russian nuclear doctrine was. Gerasimov talked about three circumstances that could breach the nuclear threshold. Such as threatening the stability of the regime, Foreign powers attacking with WMD, and Tactical nukes that could be used to offset catastrophic battlefield losses. The US intelligence community at that time estimated there was a 50% chance that the Russians would be willing to use tactical nukes. And now under the new doctrine, the use of Western non-nuclear missiles by the Ukrainian army against Russia may lead to a nuclear response. Both Russia and USA seek escalation dominance in order to outmaneuver each other in this conflict. India and Pakistan should have in place de-escalatory protocols, including enhanced communication channels, to prevent nuclear brinkmanship.

• Russia’s changing relations with the USA reflect how geopolitical shifts can influence nuclear doctrines.  Russia has also maintained that Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons of mass destruction used against it or its allies or in the event of aggression use conventional weapons that threaten the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia or Belarus. The point to be noted here is that Belarus is mentioned by name. There is a degree of ambiguity in terms of who is meant by Russia’s allies. Does that include China and also perhaps Iran? The fact that they are not named by name is by intention. So the western world will keep guessing who cannot be attacked or should not be attacked otherwise Russia might step in. What is even more interesting is that a lot has been talked about article 11 of a joint attack but Article 10 in the Presidential Decree 991. Article 10 says that aggression of one state which is a part of a military bloc or alliance is considered as aggression of the entire bloc. So it’s not just the US or Ukraine it’s also NATO that has influenced Russian nuclear doctrine. So does this mean NATO members will also alter their nuclear doctrine? This will definitely trigger an escalation spiral where the deterrent posture is altered by one state might trigger something in other states. The lesson for India and Pakistan is that both must adapt to regional and global geopolitical dynamics to ensure their deterrence postures remain credible and contextually relevant.
• Lastly, the Cold War lessons between the USA and Russia emphasize that mutual vulnerability gives rise to strategic instability. India and Pakistan should recognize that nuclear deterrence is not about achieving dominance but ensuring mutual restraint and stability. India and Pakistan can work towards a more stable deterrence relationship that reduces the risk of conflict escalation, enhances crisis management, and aligns with global efforts to prevent nuclear winter.

Authors Bio:

Qurat-ul-Ain Shabbir is a Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies AJK. She is also pursuing PhD in Defense and Strategic Studies from Quaid-e-Azam University Islamabad. Her area of research area is Human security and the civilian use of nuclear technology.

 Hira Bashir is an Associate Research Officer at the Center for International Strategic Studies AJK. She is doing MS IR from Muslim Youth University Islamabad. Her area of research is the Civilian Use of Nuclear Technology.